Open Research Project · Last updated March 2026
Measuring AI's Real Impact on Work
The fastest way to track AI's impact on your career
What is Takeover Tracker?
Think of it as a composite index — like the S&P 500 for job displacement. Instead of tracking stock prices, we measure AI capability across ~20,000 occupational tasks, weighted by how many people actually do that work. The result is a single score from 0% to 100%.
0%
Pre-AI baseline
circa 2019
~20%
Current estimate
AI assists, early automation
50%
Role restructuring
Entry-level hiring halved
100%
Economic non-viability
No cost advantage for humans
How the Score Is Built
The AI Takeover Index is computed from task-level AI capability data across every occupation in the economy, weighted by employment. Here's how the data flows.
Tasks
Load ~20,000 occupational tasks from the O*NET database across 1,100+ occupations, each with time fractions from worker surveys.
Capability
Score each task for AI capability using Anthropic's observed usage data (primary) or Gemini estimation (fallback).
Risk
Combine task category base risk with AI capability scores, weight by time fraction, and apply protective factor discounts.
Aggregate
Weight each occupation's coverage by BLS employment data to produce a single economy-wide index score.
Publish
Update per-occupation risk scores, industry aggregates, and the headline AI Takeover Index on the dashboard.
Design Principles
Task-Grounded
Every number traces back to a specific task’s AI capability score. No news sentiment, social media buzz, or CEO predictions. The index moves only when capability data changes.
Fully Transparent
Every data source, weight, formula, and scoring method is published. The full methodology is available for anyone to audit, critique, or reproduce.
Observed Data First
AI capability scores come primarily from Anthropic’s Economic Index — real-world usage data from millions of Claude conversations. Gemini estimation fills gaps for uncovered tasks.
Employment-Weighted
Occupations are weighted by how many people actually work in them. A job employing millions moves the needle more than a niche role with a few thousand workers.
Protective Factors
Six real-world barriers reduce raw risk scores: licensing requirements, physical presence, interpersonal complexity, creative judgment, liability stakes, and data scarcity.
Reproducible
The index is computed via a deterministic formula over the task database. No AI judgment calls at index time — the capability scores are pre-computed and the math is pure arithmetic.
What Feeds the Index
Three primary data sources combine to produce the AI Takeover Index. Each brings a different dimension of the picture.
Disclaimer
This index is an experimental research project, not financial or career advice. The score reflects a model-based estimate using available public data and AI analysis. It should not be used as the sole basis for any employment, investment, or policy decisions.
Leadership
Takeover Tracker is led by experienced professionals from finance and industry, united by a mission to bring transparency to AI's impact on the workforce.
Dustin Thomason
Co-Founder
Former Vice President at Stephens Inc., one of the largest independent financial services firms in the U.S. Over 15 years of experience in investment banking and capital markets. Brings deep expertise in workforce economics and financial analysis to the AI Takeover Tracker.
Chad Souter
Co-Founder
Over 15 years of executive leadership across professional services and manufacturing. Experienced in scaling operations, strategic planning, and navigating workforce transformation. Drives product strategy and business development at the AI Takeover Tracker.
See how AI affects your career
Search 59,000+ job titles across 39,000+ scored jobs or take a personalized risk assessment to understand your exposure.