Side-by-Side Comparison
Plumbers leads 5–0| Metric | Commercial Divers | Plumbers |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Score | 22.2% | 18.7% |
| Risk Tier | Low Risk | Low Risk |
| Risk Percentile | 12th | 5th |
| Tasks at Risk (>50%) | 7 / 15 | 2 / 15 |
| Median Salary | $61,130 | $62,970 |
| Employment | 3K | 456K |
Skill Comparison
|
Sorted by largest difference
Design
Assisting and Caring for Others
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships
Documenting/Recording Information
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings
Physics
Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Material
Developing and Building Teams
Handling and Moving Objects
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Protective Factors
Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement
Commercial Divers
34%
total discount
Plumbers
29%
total discount
Task Risk Comparison
Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable
Commercial Divers
7 of 15 at risk84%Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.
61%Take test samples or photographs to assess the condition of vessels or structures.
57%Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.
55%Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life.
55%Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures.
Plumbers
2 of 15 at risk87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.
Wage Comparison
Plumbers earns +$1,840(+3%) vs Commercial Divers
Commercial DiversPlumbers
10th
$39,130$40,670
25th
$49,370$48,860
Median
$61,130$62,970
75th
$93,840$81,900
90th
$152,580$105,150
Premium Head-to-Head Analysis
Displacement Timeline Comparison
Commercial Divers2028–2035
Plumbers2028–2035
20242030203520402045
Plumbers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Commercial Divers.
Risk-Adjusted Salary
Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)
Commercial Divers
$47,547
from $61,130
Plumbers
$51,195
from $62,970
After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $3,648 more in risk-adjusted pay.
Transition Feasibility
1%
Skill Overlap
Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition
0
Unique to Commercial
0
Unique to Plumbers
Combined Protection Strategy
Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors
Social Intelligence
Fine Manipulation
Regulatory Barriers
Creativity
Commercial DiversPlumbers