Takeover Tracker
34%medium risk
Commercial Pilots
vs

30 shared · 57 different

core competencies

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricCommercial PilotsBus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
Risk Score34.2%24.2%
Risk TierMedium RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile63th17th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)10 / 157 / 15
Median Salary$122,670N/A
Employment52KN/A

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Controlling Machines and Processes
Geography
Operation and Control
Deductive Reasoning
Inductive Reasoning
Problem Sensitivity
Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Identifying Objects, Actions, and Events
Active LearningAI-Augmented
Complex Problem SolvingAI-Resistant
MonitoringAI-Augmented

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Commercial Pilots

32%

total discount

Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity

26%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Commercial Pilots

10 of 15 at risk
89%Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
87%File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
87%Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
85%Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
77%Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity

7 of 15 at risk
87%Announce stops to passengers.
87%Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.
85%Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers.
85%Report delays or accidents.
67%Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort.

Wage Comparison

Commercial PilotsBus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
10th
$59,330N/A
25th
$81,660N/A
Median
$122,670N/A
75th
$175,050N/A
90th
$239,200N/A

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Commercial Pilots20282035
Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity20282035
20242030203520402045

Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Commercial Pilots.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Commercial

0

Unique to Bus

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Commercial PilotsBus Drivers, Transit and Intercity