Takeover Tracker
34%medium risk
Commercial Pilots
vs

58 shared · 33 different

core competencies

44%medium risk
Locomotive Engineers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricCommercial PilotsLocomotive Engineers
Risk Score34.2%44.1%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile63th90th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)10 / 1513 / 15
Median Salary$122,670$77,400
Employment52K32K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Geography
Customer and Personal Service
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Operation and Control
Problem Sensitivity
MathematicsAI-Vulnerable
Deductive Reasoning
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships
Making Decisions and Solving Problems
Transportation

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Commercial Pilots

32%

total discount

Locomotive Engineers

28%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Commercial Pilots

10 of 15 at risk
89%Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
87%File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
87%Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
85%Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
77%Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

Locomotive Engineers

13 of 15 at risk
87%Prepare reports regarding any problems encountered, such as accidents, signaling problems, unscheduled stops, or delays.
86%Monitor gauges or meters that measure speed, amperage, battery charge, or air pressure in brakelines or in main reservoirs.
85%Check to ensure that brake examination tests are conducted at shunting stations.
85%Check to ensure that documentation, such as procedure manuals or logbooks, are in the driver's cab and available for staff use.
77%Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives.

Wage Comparison

Locomotive Engineers earns -$45,270(-37%) vs Commercial Pilots
Commercial PilotsLocomotive Engineers
10th
$59,330$60,980
25th
$81,660$73,410
Median
$122,670$77,400
75th
$175,050$84,230
90th
$239,200$100,690

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Commercial Pilots2028–2035
Locomotive Engineers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Commercial Pilots has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Locomotive Engineers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Commercial Pilots

$80,729

from $122,670

Locomotive Engineers

$43,282

from $77,400

After adjusting for AI risk, Commercial Pilots offers $37,447 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Commercial

0

Unique to Locomotive

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
Commercial PilotsLocomotive Engineers
Find transitions from Commercial PilotsFind transitions from Locomotive Engineers