Takeover Tracker
34%medium risk
Commercial Pilots
vs

29 shared · 53 different

core competencies

44%medium risk
Locomotive Firers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricCommercial PilotsLocomotive Firers
Risk Score34.2%44.0%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile63th90th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)10 / 158 / 11
Median Salary$122,670N/A
Employment52KN/A

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Customer and Personal Service
Geography
Transportation
Operation and Control
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Material
Judging the Qualities of Things, Services, or People
Spatial Orientation
Active LearningAI-Augmented
Assisting and Caring for Others
Computers and Electronics

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Commercial Pilots

32%

total discount

Locomotive Firers

26%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Commercial Pilots

10 of 15 at risk
89%Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
87%File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
87%Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
85%Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
77%Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

Locomotive Firers

8 of 11 at risk
88%Monitor oil, temperature, and pressure gauges on dashboards to determine if engines are operating safely and efficiently.
77%Observe train signals along routes and verify their meanings for engineers.
74%Receive signals from workers in rear of train and relay that information to engineers.
69%Start diesel engines to warm engines before runs.
57%Inspect locomotives to detect damaged or worn parts.

Wage Comparison

Commercial PilotsLocomotive Firers
10th
$59,330N/A
25th
$81,660N/A
Median
$122,670N/A
75th
$175,050N/A
90th
$239,200N/A

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Commercial Pilots20282035
Locomotive Firers20282035
20242030203520402045

Commercial Pilots has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Locomotive Firers.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Commercial

0

Unique to Locomotive

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Commercial PilotsLocomotive Firers