Takeover Tracker
34%medium risk
Commercial Pilots
vs

76 shared · 19 different

core competencies

26%medium risk
Pilots, Ship

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricCommercial PilotsPilots, Ship
Risk Score34.2%25.8%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile63th21th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)10 / 155 / 15
Median Salary$122,670$85,540
Employment52K35K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Controlling Machines and Processes
Handling and Moving Objects
Customer and Personal Service
Law and Government
Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Material
Assisting and Caring for Others
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships
Training and Teaching Others
Coaching and Developing Others
Information OrderingAI-Vulnerable

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Commercial Pilots

32%

total discount

Pilots, Ship

32%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Commercial Pilots

10 of 15 at risk
89%Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
87%File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
87%Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
85%Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
77%Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

Pilots, Ship

5 of 15 at risk
88%Maintain ship logs.
84%Report to appropriate authorities any violations of federal or state pilotage laws.
78%Operate ship-to-shore radios to exchange information needed for ship operations.
53%Consult maps, charts, weather reports, or navigation equipment to determine and direct ship movements.
51%Set ships' courses that avoid reefs, outlying shoals, or other hazards, using navigational aids, such as lighthouses or buoys.

Wage Comparison

Pilots, Ship earns -$37,130(-30%) vs Commercial Pilots
Commercial PilotsPilots, Ship
10th
$59,330$46,260
25th
$81,660$60,800
Median
$122,670$85,540
75th
$175,050$124,530
90th
$239,200$164,230

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Commercial Pilots20282035
Pilots, Ship20282035
20242030203520402045

Pilots, Ship has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Commercial Pilots.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Commercial Pilots

$80,729

from $122,670

Pilots, Ship

$63,496

from $85,540

After adjusting for AI risk, Commercial Pilots offers $17,233 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Commercial

0

Unique to Pilots,

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Fine Manipulation
Regulatory Barriers
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Commercial PilotsPilots, Ship