Side-by-Side Comparison
Plumbers leads 5–0| Metric | Construction Carpenters | Plumbers |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Score | 20.8% | 18.7% |
| Risk Tier | Low Risk | Low Risk |
| Risk Percentile | 8th | 5th |
| Tasks at Risk (>50%) | 7 / 15 | 2 / 15 |
| Median Salary | $59,310 | $62,970 |
| Employment | 698K | 456K |
Skill Comparison
|
Sorted by largest difference
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Administration and Management
Building and Construction
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Mechanical
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Stamina
Extent Flexibility
Equipment MaintenanceAI-Resistant
Developing and Building Teams
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Protective Factors
Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement
Construction Carpenters
28%
total discount
Plumbers
29%
total discount
Task Risk Comparison
Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable
Construction Carpenters
7 of 15 at risk88%Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports.
86%Select and order lumber or other required materials.
70%Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level.
66%Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge.
55%Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required.
Plumbers
2 of 15 at risk87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.
Wage Comparison
Plumbers earns +$3,660(+6%) vs Construction Carpenters
Construction CarpentersPlumbers
10th
$38,760$40,670
25th
$47,550$48,860
Median
$59,310$62,970
75th
$75,620$81,900
90th
$98,370$105,150
Premium Head-to-Head Analysis
Displacement Timeline Comparison
Construction Carpenters2028–2035
Plumbers2028–2035
20242030203520402045
Plumbers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Construction Carpenters.
Risk-Adjusted Salary
Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)
Construction Carpenters
$46,956
from $59,310
Plumbers
$51,195
from $62,970
After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $4,239 more in risk-adjusted pay.
Transition Feasibility
1%
Skill Overlap
Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition
0
Unique to Construction
0
Unique to Plumbers
Combined Protection Strategy
Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors
Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
Creativity
Fine Manipulation
Construction CarpentersPlumbers