Takeover Tracker
vs

69 shared · 14 different

core competencies

19%low risk
Plumbers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricConstruction CarpentersPlumbers
Risk Score20.8%18.7%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile8th5th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)7 / 152 / 15
Median Salary$59,310$62,970
Employment698K456K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Administration and Management
Building and Construction
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Mechanical
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Stamina
Extent Flexibility
Equipment MaintenanceAI-Resistant
Developing and Building Teams
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Construction Carpenters

28%

total discount

Plumbers

29%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Construction Carpenters

7 of 15 at risk
88%Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports.
86%Select and order lumber or other required materials.
70%Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level.
66%Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge.
55%Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required.

Plumbers

2 of 15 at risk
87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.

Wage Comparison

Plumbers earns +$3,660(+6%) vs Construction Carpenters
Construction CarpentersPlumbers
10th
$38,760$40,670
25th
$47,550$48,860
Median
$59,310$62,970
75th
$75,620$81,900
90th
$98,370$105,150

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Construction Carpenters20282035
Plumbers20282035
20242030203520402045

Plumbers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Construction Carpenters.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Construction Carpenters

$46,956

from $59,310

Plumbers

$51,195

from $62,970

After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $4,239 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Construction

0

Unique to Plumbers

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
Creativity
Fine Manipulation
Construction CarpentersPlumbers