Forest Firefighters vs Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge AI Risk

Job 1

Job 2

Job 1

Job 2

low risk

Forest Firefighters

78 shared · 27 different

core competencies

medium risk

Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge

Side-by-Side Comparison

Forest Firefighters leads 4–1

Metric	Forest Firefighters	Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge
Risk Score	21.0%	32.1%
Risk Tier	Low Risk	Medium Risk
Risk Percentile	9th	52th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)	2 / 15	4 / 12
Median Salary	$59,530	$85,540
Employment	332K	35K

Skill Comparison

Sorted by largest difference

Building and Construction

Assisting and Caring for Others

Customer and Personal Service

Performing for or Working Directly with the Public

Static Strength

Response Orientation

Communicating with Persons Outside Organization

Trunk Strength

Thinking Creatively

Chemistry

Education and Training

Controlling Machines and Processes

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Forest Firefighters

35%

total discount

Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge

32%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Forest Firefighters

2 of 15 at risk

76%Maintain knowledge of current firefighting practices by participating in drills and by attending seminars, conventions, and conferences.

74%Maintain contact with fire dispatchers at all times to notify them of the need for additional firefighters and supplies, or to detail any difficulties encountered.

49%Operate pumps connected to high-pressure hoses.

49%Maintain fire equipment and firehouse living quarters.

49%Transport personnel and cargo to and from fire areas.

Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge

4 of 12 at risk

85%Arrange for ships to be stocked, fueled, or repaired.

79%Observe water from ships' mastheads to advise on navigational direction.

77%Observe loading or unloading of cargo or equipment to ensure that handling and storage are performed according to specifications.

61%Determine geographical positions of ships, using lorans, azimuths of celestial bodies, or computers, and use this information to determine the course and speed of a ship.

49%Stand watches on vessels during specified periods while vessels are under way.

Wage Comparison

Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge earns +$26,010(+44%) vs Forest Firefighters

Forest FirefightersMates- Ship, Boat, and Barge

10th

$34,490$46,260

25th

$44,180$60,800

Median

$59,530$85,540

75th

$77,410$124,530

90th

$101,330$164,230

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Forest Firefighters2028–2035

Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge2028–2035

20242030203520402045

Forest Firefighters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Forest Firefighters

$47,029

from $59,530

Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge

$58,065

from $85,540

After adjusting for AI risk, Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge offers $11,036 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

Unique to Forest

Unique to Mates-

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Fine Manipulation

Social Intelligence

Creativity

Regulatory Barriers

Forest FirefightersMates- Ship, Boat, and Barge

Find transitions from Forest Firefighters Find transitions from Mates- Ship, Boat, and Barge