Takeover Tracker
21%low risk
Forest Firefighters
vs

69 shared · 37 different

core competencies

29%medium risk
Motorboat Operators

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricForest FirefightersMotorboat Operators
Risk Score21.0%29.4%
Risk TierLow RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile9th35th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)2 / 155 / 15
Median Salary$59,530$51,880
Employment332K2K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Building and Construction
Assisting and Caring for Others
Coaching and Developing Others
Education and Training
Public Safety and Security
Stamina
Provide Consultation and Advice to Others
Interpreting the Meaning of Information for Others
Controlling Machines and Processes
Performing General Physical Activities
Trunk Strength
Training and Teaching Others

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Forest Firefighters

35%

total discount

Motorboat Operators

30%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Forest Firefighters

2 of 15 at risk
76%Maintain knowledge of current firefighting practices by participating in drills and by attending seminars, conventions, and conferences.
74%Maintain contact with fire dispatchers at all times to notify them of the need for additional firefighters and supplies, or to detail any difficulties encountered.
49%Operate pumps connected to high-pressure hoses.
49%Maintain fire equipment and firehouse living quarters.
49%Transport personnel and cargo to and from fire areas.

Motorboat Operators

5 of 15 at risk
85%Arrange repairs, fuel, and supplies for vessels.
83%Report any observed navigational hazards to authorities.
70%Follow safety procedures to ensure the protection of passengers, cargo, and vessels.
65%Take depth soundings in turning basins.
59%Maintain desired courses, using compasses or electronic navigational aids.

Wage Comparison

Motorboat Operators earns -$7,650(-13%) vs Forest Firefighters
Forest FirefightersMotorboat Operators
10th
$34,490$31,970
25th
$44,180$39,860
Median
$59,530$51,880
75th
$77,410$68,490
90th
$101,330$82,330

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Forest Firefighters2028–2035
Motorboat Operators2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Forest Firefighters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Motorboat Operators.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Forest Firefighters

$47,029

from $59,530

Motorboat Operators

$36,643

from $51,880

After adjusting for AI risk, Forest Firefighters offers $10,386 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Forest

0

Unique to Motorboat

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Creativity
Fine Manipulation
Decision Complexity
Forest FirefightersMotorboat Operators
Find transitions from Forest FirefightersFind transitions from Motorboat Operators