Takeover Tracker
21%low risk
Forest Firefighters
vs

26 shared · 69 different

core competencies

22%low risk
Painters, Construction and Maintenance

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricForest FirefightersPainters, Construction and Maintenance
Risk Score21.0%21.9%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile9th11th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)2 / 153 / 15
Median Salary$59,530$48,660
Employment332K224K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Assisting and Caring for Others
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Reaction Time
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings
Problem Sensitivity
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization
Coaching and Developing Others
Controlling Machines and Processes
Identifying Objects, Actions, and Events
Customer and Personal Service
Building and Construction

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Forest Firefighters

35%

total discount

Painters, Construction and Maintenance

28%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Forest Firefighters

2 of 15 at risk
76%Maintain knowledge of current firefighting practices by participating in drills and by attending seminars, conventions, and conferences.
74%Maintain contact with fire dispatchers at all times to notify them of the need for additional firefighters and supplies, or to detail any difficulties encountered.
49%Operate pumps connected to high-pressure hoses.
49%Maintain fire equipment and firehouse living quarters.
49%Transport personnel and cargo to and from fire areas.

Painters, Construction and Maintenance

3 of 15 at risk
86%Read work orders or receive instructions from supervisors or homeowners to determine work requirements.
74%Calculate amounts of required materials and estimate costs, based on surface measurements or work orders.
51%Mix and match colors of paint, stain, or varnish with oil or thinning and drying additives to obtain desired colors and consistencies.
49%Smooth surfaces, using sandpaper, scrapers, brushes, steel wool, or sanding machines.
49%Wash and treat surfaces with oil, turpentine, mildew remover, or other preparations, and sand rough spots to ensure that finishes will adhere properly.

Wage Comparison

Painters, Construction and Maintenance earns -$10,870(-18%) vs Forest Firefighters
Forest FirefightersPainters, Construction and Maintenance
10th
$34,490$36,680
25th
$44,180$42,510
Median
$59,530$48,660
75th
$77,410$60,270
90th
$101,330$76,550

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Forest Firefighters2028–2035
Painters, Construction and Maintenance2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Forest Firefighters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Painters, Construction and Maintenance.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Forest Firefighters

$47,029

from $59,530

Painters, Construction and Maintenance

$38,028

from $48,660

After adjusting for AI risk, Forest Firefighters offers $9,001 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Forest

0

Unique to Painters,

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Fine Manipulation
Creativity
Decision Complexity
Forest FirefightersPainters, Construction and Maintenance
Find transitions from Forest FirefightersFind transitions from Painters, Construction and Maintenance