Takeover Tracker
vs

71 shared · 35 different

core competencies

23%low risk
Rough Carpenters

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricForest FirefightersRough Carpenters
Risk Score21.0%23.4%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile9th15th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)2 / 154 / 15
Median Salary$59,530$59,310
Employment332K698K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Assisting and Caring for Others
Public Safety and Security
Customer and Personal Service
Transportation
Design
Chemistry
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Documenting/Recording Information
Provide Consultation and Advice to Others
Interpreting the Meaning of Information for Others

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Forest Firefighters

35%

total discount

Rough Carpenters

31%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Forest Firefighters

2 of 15 at risk
76%Maintain knowledge of current firefighting practices by participating in drills and by attending seminars, conventions, and conferences.
74%Maintain contact with fire dispatchers at all times to notify them of the need for additional firefighters and supplies, or to detail any difficulties encountered.
49%Operate pumps connected to high-pressure hoses.
49%Maintain fire equipment and firehouse living quarters.
49%Transport personnel and cargo to and from fire areas.

Rough Carpenters

4 of 15 at risk
86%Maintain job records and schedule work crew.
84%Study blueprints and diagrams to determine dimensions of structure or form to be constructed.
62%Measure materials or distances, using square, measuring tape, or rule to lay out work.
51%Fabricate parts, using woodworking and metalworking machines.
43%Cut or saw boards, timbers, or plywood to required size, using handsaw, power saw, or woodworking machine.

Wage Comparison

Rough Carpenters earns -$220(0%) vs Forest Firefighters
Forest FirefightersRough Carpenters
10th
$34,490$38,760
25th
$44,180$47,550
Median
$59,530$59,310
75th
$77,410$75,620
90th
$101,330$98,370

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Forest Firefighters20282035
Rough Carpenters20282035
20242030203520402045

Forest Firefighters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Rough Carpenters.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Forest Firefighters

$47,029

from $59,530

Rough Carpenters

$45,414

from $59,310

After adjusting for AI risk, Forest Firefighters offers $1,615 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Forest

0

Unique to Rough

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Regulatory Barriers
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Creativity
Forest FirefightersRough Carpenters