Takeover Tracker
21%low risk
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
vs

20 shared · 33 different

core competencies

22%low risk
Manicurists and Pedicurists

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricHairdressers, Hairstylists, and CosmetologistsManicurists and Pedicurists
Risk Score21.5%21.6%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile10th10th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)5 / 152 / 15
Median Salary$35,250$34,660
Employment295K148K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Making Decisions and Solving Problems
Selling or Influencing Others
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization
Thinking Creatively
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Assisting and Caring for Others
Customer and Personal Service
Training and Teaching Others
Documenting/Recording Information
Sales and Marketing

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

33%

total discount

Manicurists and Pedicurists

23%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

5 of 15 at risk
86%Operate cash registers to receive payments from patrons.
84%Order, display, and maintain supplies.
65%Schedule client appointments.
61%Update and maintain customer information records, such as beauty services provided.
53%Analyze patrons' hair and other physical features to determine and recommend beauty treatment or suggest hair styles.

Manicurists and Pedicurists

2 of 15 at risk
87%Maintain supply inventories and records of client services.
87%Schedule client appointments and accept payments.
45%Clean and sanitize tools and work environment.
41%Remove previously applied nail polish, using liquid remover and swabs.
39%Prepare customers' nails in soapy water, using swabs, files, and orange sticks.

Wage Comparison

Manicurists and Pedicurists earns -$590(-2%) vs Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and CosmetologistsManicurists and Pedicurists
10th
$24,580$27,910
25th
$29,060$31,510
Median
$35,250$34,660
75th
$48,300$37,660
90th
$70,220$47,990

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists2028–2035
Manicurists and Pedicurists2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Manicurists and Pedicurists.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

$27,675

from $35,250

Manicurists and Pedicurists

$27,163

from $34,660

After adjusting for AI risk, Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists offers $512 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Hairdressers,

0

Unique to Manicurists

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and CosmetologistsManicurists and Pedicurists
Find transitions from Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and CosmetologistsFind transitions from Manicurists and Pedicurists