Takeover Tracker
17%low risk
Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers
vs

67 shared · 31 different

core competencies

19%low risk
Plumbers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricHeating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and InstallersPlumbers
Risk Score17.0%18.7%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile2th5th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)4 / 152 / 15
Median Salary$59,810$62,970
Employment397K456K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Analyzing Data or Information
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships
Controlling Machines and Processes
Interpreting the Meaning of Information for Others
Thinking Creatively
Processing Information
Installation
Developing Objectives and Strategies
Making Decisions and Solving Problems
Provide Consultation and Advice to Others

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers

32%

total discount

Plumbers

29%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers

4 of 15 at risk
88%Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders.
82%Adjust system controls to settings recommended by manufacturer to balance system.
70%Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area.
50%Study blueprints, design specifications, or manufacturers' recommendations to ascertain the configuration of heating or cooling equipment components and to ensure the proper installation of components.
45%Inspect and test systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions.

Plumbers

2 of 15 at risk
87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.

Wage Comparison

Plumbers earns +$3,160(+5%) vs Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers
Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and InstallersPlumbers
10th
$39,130$40,670
25th
$47,850$48,860
Median
$59,810$62,970
75th
$74,820$81,900
90th
$91,020$105,150

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers2028–2035
Plumbers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Plumbers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers

$49,624

from $59,810

Plumbers

$51,195

from $62,970

After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $1,570 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Heating

0

Unique to Plumbers

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Creativity
Fine Manipulation
Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and InstallersPlumbers
Find transitions from Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and InstallersFind transitions from Plumbers