Takeover Tracker
34%medium risk
Hoist and Winch Operators
vs

61 shared · 16 different

core competencies

44%medium risk
Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricHoist and Winch OperatorsMetal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders
Risk Score33.6%44.2%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile60th90th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)2 / 137 / 15
Median Salary$52,310$55,770
Employment2K20K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Production and Processing
Controlling Machines and Processes
Performing General Physical Activities
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates
Training and Teaching Others
Developing Objectives and Strategies
Education and Training
Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Hoist and Winch Operators

28%

total discount

Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders

26%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Hoist and Winch Operators

2 of 13 at risk
84%Select loads or materials according to weight and size specifications.
80%Observe equipment gauges and indicators and hand signals of other workers to verify load positions or depths.
47%Oil winch drums so that cables will wind smoothly.
43%Move levers, pedals, and throttles to stop, start, and regulate speeds of hoist or winch drums in response to hand, bell, buzzer, telephone, loud-speaker, or whistle signals, or by observing dial indicators or cable marks.
43%Apply hand or foot brakes and move levers to lock hoists or winches.

Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders

7 of 15 at risk
88%Record production data, and maintain production logs.
84%Observe air and temperature gauges or metal color and fluidity, and turn fuel valves or adjust controls to maintain required temperatures.
84%Observe operations inside furnaces, using television screens, to ensure that problems do not occur.
74%Draw smelted metal samples from furnaces or kettles for analysis, and calculate types and amounts of materials needed to ensure that materials meet specifications.
67%Regulate supplies of fuel and air, or control flow of electric current and water coolant to heat furnaces and adjust temperatures.

Wage Comparison

Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders earns +$3,460(+7%) vs Hoist and Winch Operators
Hoist and Winch OperatorsMetal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders
10th
$33,910$38,760
25th
$39,220$46,550
Median
$52,310$55,770
75th
$90,200$65,070
90th
$116,120$80,280

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Hoist and Winch Operators2028–2035
Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Hoist and Winch Operators has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Hoist and Winch Operators

$34,708

from $52,310

Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders

$31,120

from $55,770

After adjusting for AI risk, Hoist and Winch Operators offers $3,588 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Hoist

0

Unique to Metal-Refining

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Creativity
Hoist and Winch OperatorsMetal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders
Find transitions from Hoist and Winch OperatorsFind transitions from Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders