Takeover Tracker
37%medium risk
Machinists
vs

52 shared · 5 different

core competencies

32%medium risk
Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricMachinistsPatternmakers, Metal and Plastic
Risk Score36.8%31.6%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile71th48th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)9 / 158 / 15
Median Salary$56,150$54,540
Employment299K2K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Handling and Moving Objects
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
MathematicsAI-Vulnerable
Controlling Machines and Processes

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Machinists

26%

total discount

Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic

25%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Machinists

9 of 15 at risk
86%Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools.
84%Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products.
70%Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments such as micrometers or vernier calipers.
63%Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process.
57%Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers.

Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic

8 of 15 at risk
84%Select pattern materials such as wood, resin, and fiberglass.
73%Program computerized numerical control machine tools.
59%Mark identification numbers or symbols onto patterns or templates.
57%Paint or lacquer patterns.
55%Create computer models of patterns or parts, using modeling software.

Wage Comparison

Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic earns -$1,610(-3%) vs Machinists
MachinistsPatternmakers, Metal and Plastic
10th
$38,100$39,150
25th
$46,250$47,520
Median
$56,150$54,540
75th
$64,910$66,590
90th
$78,760$79,690

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Machinists2028–2035
Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Machinists.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Machinists

$35,492

from $56,150

Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic

$37,284

from $54,540

After adjusting for AI risk, Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic offers $1,791 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Machinists

0

Unique to Patternmakers,

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Regulatory Barriers
Decision Complexity
MachinistsPatternmakers, Metal and Plastic
Find transitions from MachinistsFind transitions from Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic