Takeover Tracker
15%low risk
Millwrights
vs

62 shared · 40 different

core competencies

19%low risk
Plumbers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricMillwrightsPlumbers
Risk Score14.6%18.7%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile1th5th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)0 / 152 / 15
Median Salary$65,170$62,970
Employment41K456K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Developing and Building Teams
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Controlling Machines and Processes
Coaching and Developing Others
Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Material
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Documenting/Recording Information
Handling and Moving Objects
MathematicsAI-Vulnerable

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Millwrights

33%

total discount

Plumbers

29%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Millwrights

0 of 15 at risk
43%Attach moving parts and subassemblies to basic assembly unit, using hand tools and power tools.
41%Conduct preventative maintenance and repair, and lubricate machines and equipment.
35%Position steel beams to support bedplates of machines and equipment, using blueprints and schematic drawings, to determine work procedures.
19%Signal crane operator to lower basic assembly units to bedplate, and align unit to centerline.
11%Insert shims, adjust tension on nuts and bolts, or position parts, using hand tools and measuring instruments, to set specified clearances between moving and stationary parts.

Plumbers

2 of 15 at risk
87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.

Wage Comparison

Plumbers earns -$2,200(-3%) vs Millwrights
MillwrightsPlumbers
10th
$45,100$40,670
25th
$55,420$48,860
Median
$65,170$62,970
75th
$80,580$81,900
90th
$93,740$105,150

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Millwrights20282035
Plumbers20282035
20242030203520402045

Millwrights has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Plumbers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Millwrights

$55,649

from $65,170

Plumbers

$51,195

from $62,970

After adjusting for AI risk, Millwrights offers $4,454 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Millwrights

0

Unique to Plumbers

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
MillwrightsPlumbers