Side-by-Side Comparison
Millwrights leads 5–0| Metric | Millwrights | Plumbers |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Score | 14.6% | 18.7% |
| Risk Tier | Low Risk | Low Risk |
| Risk Percentile | 1th | 5th |
| Tasks at Risk (>50%) | 0 / 15 | 2 / 15 |
| Median Salary | $65,170 | $62,970 |
| Employment | 41K | 456K |
Skill Comparison
|
Sorted by largest difference
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Developing and Building Teams
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Controlling Machines and Processes
Coaching and Developing Others
Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Material
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Documenting/Recording Information
Handling and Moving Objects
MathematicsAI-Vulnerable
Protective Factors
Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement
Millwrights
33%
total discount
Plumbers
29%
total discount
Task Risk Comparison
Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable
Millwrights
0 of 15 at risk43%Attach moving parts and subassemblies to basic assembly unit, using hand tools and power tools.
41%Conduct preventative maintenance and repair, and lubricate machines and equipment.
35%Position steel beams to support bedplates of machines and equipment, using blueprints and schematic drawings, to determine work procedures.
19%Signal crane operator to lower basic assembly units to bedplate, and align unit to centerline.
11%Insert shims, adjust tension on nuts and bolts, or position parts, using hand tools and measuring instruments, to set specified clearances between moving and stationary parts.
Plumbers
2 of 15 at risk87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.
Wage Comparison
Plumbers earns -$2,200(-3%) vs Millwrights
MillwrightsPlumbers
10th
$45,100$40,670
25th
$55,420$48,860
Median
$65,170$62,970
75th
$80,580$81,900
90th
$93,740$105,150
Premium Head-to-Head Analysis
Displacement Timeline Comparison
Millwrights2028–2035
Plumbers2028–2035
20242030203520402045
Millwrights has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Plumbers.
Risk-Adjusted Salary
Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)
Millwrights
$55,649
from $65,170
Plumbers
$51,195
from $62,970
After adjusting for AI risk, Millwrights offers $4,454 more in risk-adjusted pay.
Transition Feasibility
1%
Skill Overlap
Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition
0
Unique to Millwrights
0
Unique to Plumbers
Combined Protection Strategy
Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors
Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
MillwrightsPlumbers