Takeover Tracker
33%medium risk
Nursery Workers
vs

21 shared · 7 different

core competencies

26%medium risk
Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricNursery WorkersShoe and Leather Workers and Repairers
Risk Score33.4%26.4%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile59th23th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)8 / 153 / 15
Median Salary$35,690$35,950
Employment262K8K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Static Strength
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Trunk Strength
Dynamic Strength
Flexibility of Closure
Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Nursery Workers

22%

total discount

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers

20%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Nursery Workers

8 of 15 at risk
86%Regulate greenhouse conditions, and indoor and outdoor irrigation systems.
86%Maintain inventory, ordering materials as required.
84%Record information about plants and plant growth.
61%Fill growing tanks with water.
57%Cut, roll, and stack sod.

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers

3 of 15 at risk
86%Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers.
57%Cut out parts, following patterns or outlines, using knives, shears, scissors, or machine presses.
51%Align and stitch or glue materials such as fabric, fleece, leather, or wood, to join parts.
49%Place shoes on lasts to remove soles and heels, using knives or pliers.
49%Clean and polish shoes.

Wage Comparison

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers earns +$260(+1%) vs Nursery Workers
Nursery WorkersShoe and Leather Workers and Repairers
10th
$32,260$25,170
25th
$34,280$29,400
Median
$35,690$35,950
75th
$38,950$41,400
90th
$46,370$48,090

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Nursery Workers2028–2035
Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Nursery Workers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Nursery Workers

$23,766

from $35,690

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers

$26,445

from $35,950

After adjusting for AI risk, Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers offers $2,679 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Nursery

0

Unique to Shoe

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Creativity
Regulatory Barriers
Nursery WorkersShoe and Leather Workers and Repairers
Find transitions from Nursery WorkersFind transitions from Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers