Takeover Tracker
22%low risk
Pipelayers
vs

59 shared · 21 different

core competencies

19%low risk
Plumbers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricPipelayersPlumbers
Risk Score21.6%18.7%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile10th5th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)3 / 142 / 15
Median Salary$48,710$62,970
Employment34K456K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Controlling Machines and Processes
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Design
Handling and Moving Objects
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Performing General Physical Activities
Scheduling Work and Activities
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Extent Flexibility
Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Pipelayers

28%

total discount

Plumbers

29%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Pipelayers

3 of 14 at risk
84%Lay out pipe routes, following written instructions or blueprints and coordinating layouts with supervisors.
74%Check slopes for conformance to requirements, using levels or lasers.
74%Locate existing pipes needing repair or replacement, using magnetic or radio indicators.
49%Cover pipes with earth or other materials.
49%Dig trenches to desired or required depths, by hand or using trenching tools.

Plumbers

2 of 15 at risk
87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.

Wage Comparison

Plumbers earns +$14,260(+29%) vs Pipelayers
PipelayersPlumbers
10th
$36,840$40,670
25th
$42,320$48,860
Median
$48,710$62,970
75th
$60,980$81,900
90th
$80,710$105,150

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Pipelayers20282035
Plumbers20282035
20242030203520402045

Plumbers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Pipelayers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Pipelayers

$38,189

from $48,710

Plumbers

$51,195

from $62,970

After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $13,006 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Pipelayers

0

Unique to Plumbers

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
PipelayersPlumbers