Takeover Tracker
22%low risk
Pipelayers
vs

58 shared · 14 different

core competencies

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricPipelayersSheet Metal Workers
Risk Score21.6%24.2%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile10th17th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)3 / 147 / 15
Median Salary$48,710$60,850
Employment34K117K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Handling and Moving Objects
Public Safety and Security
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Controlling Machines and Processes
Building and Construction
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
MathematicsAI-Vulnerable
Visualization
Training and Teaching Others
Production and Processing

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Pipelayers

28%

total discount

Sheet Metal Workers

27%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Pipelayers

3 of 14 at risk
84%Lay out pipe routes, following written instructions or blueprints and coordinating layouts with supervisors.
74%Check slopes for conformance to requirements, using levels or lasers.
74%Locate existing pipes needing repair or replacement, using magnetic or radio indicators.
49%Cover pipes with earth or other materials.
49%Dig trenches to desired or required depths, by hand or using trenching tools.

Sheet Metal Workers

7 of 15 at risk
86%Develop or lay out patterns, using computerized metalworking equipment.
86%Verify that heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed, installed, and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards, such as those of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED).
85%Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications.
84%Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products.
63%Inspect individual parts, assemblies, or installations, using measuring instruments, such as calipers, scales, or micrometers.

Wage Comparison

Sheet Metal Workers earns +$12,140(+25%) vs Pipelayers
PipelayersSheet Metal Workers
10th
$36,840$38,030
25th
$42,320$47,290
Median
$48,710$60,850
75th
$60,980$79,620
90th
$80,710$102,680

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Pipelayers20282035
Sheet Metal Workers20282035
20242030203520402045

Pipelayers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Sheet Metal Workers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Pipelayers

$38,189

from $48,710

Sheet Metal Workers

$46,112

from $60,850

After adjusting for AI risk, Sheet Metal Workers offers $7,923 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Pipelayers

0

Unique to Sheet

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Regulatory Barriers
Creativity
Social Intelligence
Fine Manipulation
PipelayersSheet Metal Workers