Side-by-Side Comparison
Plumbers leads 5–0| Metric | Plumbers | Construction Carpenters |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Score | 18.7% | 20.8% |
| Risk Tier | Low Risk | Low Risk |
| Risk Percentile | 5th | 8th |
| Tasks at Risk (>50%) | 2 / 15 | 7 / 15 |
| Median Salary | $62,970 | $59,310 |
| Employment | 456K | 698K |
Skill Comparison
|
Sorted by largest difference
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Administration and Management
Building and Construction
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Mechanical
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Stamina
Extent Flexibility
Equipment MaintenanceAI-Resistant
Developing and Building Teams
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Protective Factors
Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement
Plumbers
29%
total discount
Construction Carpenters
28%
total discount
Task Risk Comparison
Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable
Plumbers
2 of 15 at risk87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.
Construction Carpenters
7 of 15 at risk88%Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports.
86%Select and order lumber or other required materials.
70%Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level.
66%Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge.
55%Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required.
Wage Comparison
Construction Carpenters earns -$3,660(-6%) vs Plumbers
PlumbersConstruction Carpenters
10th
$40,670$38,760
25th
$48,860$47,550
Median
$62,970$59,310
75th
$81,900$75,620
90th
$105,150$98,370
Premium Head-to-Head Analysis
Displacement Timeline Comparison
Plumbers2028–2035
Construction Carpenters2028–2035
20242030203520402045
Plumbers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Construction Carpenters.
Risk-Adjusted Salary
Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)
Plumbers
$51,195
from $62,970
Construction Carpenters
$46,956
from $59,310
After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $4,239 more in risk-adjusted pay.
Transition Feasibility
1%
Skill Overlap
Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition
0
Unique to Plumbers
0
Unique to Construction
Combined Protection Strategy
Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors
Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
Creativity
Fine Manipulation
PlumbersConstruction Carpenters