Plumbers vs Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers AI Risk

Job 1

Job 2

Job 1

Job 2

low risk

Plumbers

51 shared · 21 different

core competencies

low risk

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

Side-by-Side Comparison

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers leads 4–1

Metric	Plumbers	Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers
Risk Score	18.7%	14.7%
Risk Tier	Low Risk	Low Risk
Risk Percentile	5th	1th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)	2 / 15	1 / 15
Median Salary	$62,970	$58,140
Employment	456K	83K

Skill Comparison

Sorted by largest difference

Mechanical

Design

Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards

Identifying Objects, Actions, and Events

Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge

Education and Training

Customer and Personal Service

Scheduling Work and Activities

Making Decisions and Solving Problems

Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment

Critical ThinkingAI-Augmented

Stamina

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Plumbers

29%

total discount

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

25%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Plumbers

2 of 15 at risk

87%Keep records of work assignments.

54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.

48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.

45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.

38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

1 of 15 at risk

69%Read blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation, work procedures, or material or tool requirements.

41%Inspect furrings, mechanical mountings, or masonry surfaces for plumbness and level, using spirit or water levels.

35%Trim rough edges from wallboard to maintain even joints, using knives.

29%Measure and mark surfaces to lay out work, according to blueprints or drawings, using tape measures, straightedges or squares, and marking devices.

19%Coordinate work with drywall finishers who cover the seams between drywall panels.

Wage Comparison

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers earns -$4,830(-8%) vs Plumbers

PlumbersDrywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

10th

$40,670$37,810

25th

$48,860$46,880

Median

$62,970$58,140

75th

$81,900$72,660

90th

$105,150$101,380

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Plumbers2028–2035

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers2028–2035

20242030203520402045

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Plumbers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Plumbers

$51,195

from $62,970

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

$49,593

from $58,140

After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $1,601 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

Unique to Plumbers

Unique to Drywall

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Decision Complexity

Creativity

Social Intelligence

Regulatory Barriers

PlumbersDrywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

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