Takeover Tracker
19%low risk
Plumbers
vs

67 shared · 13 different

core competencies

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricPlumbersInsulation Workers, Mechanical
Risk Score18.7%18.5%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile5th4th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)2 / 153 / 13
Median Salary$62,970$57,250
Employment456K26K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Mechanical
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Building and Construction
Engineering and Technology
Design
Developing and Building Teams
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Troubleshooting
Quality Control Analysis
Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Thinking Creatively
Administration and Management

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Plumbers

29%

total discount

Insulation Workers, Mechanical

29%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Plumbers

2 of 15 at risk
87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.

Insulation Workers, Mechanical

3 of 13 at risk
85%Select appropriate insulation, such as fiberglass, Styrofoam, or cork, based on the heat retaining or excluding characteristics of the material.
77%Determine the amounts and types of insulation needed, and methods of installation, based on factors such as location, surface shape, and equipment use.
60%Read blueprints and specifications to determine job requirements.
45%Move controls, buttons, or levers to start blowers, and to regulate flow of materials through nozzles.
41%Prepare surfaces for insulation application by brushing or spreading on adhesives, cement, or asphalt, or by attaching metal pins to surfaces.

Wage Comparison

Insulation Workers, Mechanical earns -$5,720(-9%) vs Plumbers
PlumbersInsulation Workers, Mechanical
10th
$40,670$39,450
25th
$48,860$47,480
Median
$62,970$57,250
75th
$81,900$75,300
90th
$105,150$94,110

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Plumbers20282035
Insulation Workers, Mechanical20282035
20242030203520402045

Insulation Workers, Mechanical has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Plumbers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Plumbers

$51,195

from $62,970

Insulation Workers, Mechanical

$46,676

from $57,250

After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $4,519 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Plumbers

0

Unique to Insulation

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
Social Intelligence
Creativity
PlumbersInsulation Workers, Mechanical