Takeover Tracker
16%low risk
Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers
vs

67 shared · 31 different

core competencies

19%low risk
Plumbers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricRefrigeration Mechanics and InstallersPlumbers
Risk Score16.4%18.7%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile2th5th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)2 / 152 / 15
Median Salary$59,810$62,970
Employment397K456K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships
Documenting/Recording Information
Interpreting the Meaning of Information for Others
Controlling Machines and Processes
Clerical
Hearing Sensitivity
Physics
Installation
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Computers and Electronics

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

31%

total discount

Plumbers

29%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

2 of 15 at risk
87%Keep records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions.
87%Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock.
37%Observe and test system operation, using gauges and instruments.
21%Supervise and instruct assistants.
13%Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition.

Plumbers

2 of 15 at risk
87%Keep records of work assignments.
54%Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.
48%Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
45%Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.
38%Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.

Wage Comparison

Plumbers earns +$3,160(+5%) vs Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers
Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersPlumbers
10th
$39,130$40,670
25th
$47,850$48,860
Median
$59,810$62,970
75th
$74,820$81,900
90th
$91,020$105,150

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers2028–2035
Plumbers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Plumbers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

$50,025

from $59,810

Plumbers

$51,195

from $62,970

After adjusting for AI risk, Plumbers offers $1,170 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Refrigeration

0

Unique to Plumbers

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Creativity
Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersPlumbers
Find transitions from Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersFind transitions from Plumbers