Rough Carpenters vs Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers AI Risk

Job 1

Job 2

Job 1

Job 2

low risk

Rough Carpenters

44 shared · 29 different

core competencies

low risk

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

Side-by-Side Comparison

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers leads 4–1

Metric	Rough Carpenters	Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers
Risk Score	23.4%	14.7%
Risk Tier	Low Risk	Low Risk
Risk Percentile	15th	1th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)	4 / 15	1 / 15
Median Salary	$59,310	$58,140
Employment	698K	83K

Skill Comparison

Sorted by largest difference

Identifying Objects, Actions, and Events

Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment

Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships

Making Decisions and Solving Problems

Controlling Machines and Processes

Performing General Physical Activities

Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings

Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge

Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates

Design

Coaching and Developing Others

Developing and Building Teams

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Rough Carpenters

31%

total discount

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

25%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Rough Carpenters

4 of 15 at risk

86%Maintain job records and schedule work crew.

84%Study blueprints and diagrams to determine dimensions of structure or form to be constructed.

62%Measure materials or distances, using square, measuring tape, or rule to lay out work.

51%Fabricate parts, using woodworking and metalworking machines.

43%Cut or saw boards, timbers, or plywood to required size, using handsaw, power saw, or woodworking machine.

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

1 of 15 at risk

69%Read blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation, work procedures, or material or tool requirements.

41%Inspect furrings, mechanical mountings, or masonry surfaces for plumbness and level, using spirit or water levels.

35%Trim rough edges from wallboard to maintain even joints, using knives.

29%Measure and mark surfaces to lay out work, according to blueprints or drawings, using tape measures, straightedges or squares, and marking devices.

19%Coordinate work with drywall finishers who cover the seams between drywall panels.

Wage Comparison

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers earns -$1,170(-2%) vs Rough Carpenters

Rough CarpentersDrywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

10th

$38,760$37,810

25th

$47,550$46,880

Median

$59,310$58,140

75th

$75,620$72,660

90th

$98,370$101,380

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Rough Carpenters2028–2035

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers2028–2035

20242030203520402045

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Rough Carpenters.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Rough Carpenters

$45,414

from $59,310

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

$49,593

from $58,140

After adjusting for AI risk, Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers offers $4,180 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

Unique to Rough

Unique to Drywall

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence

Creativity

Decision Complexity

Fine Manipulation

Rough CarpentersDrywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

Find transitions from Rough Carpenters Find transitions from Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers