Takeover Tracker
23%low risk
Rough Carpenters
vs

63 shared · 16 different

core competencies

22%low risk
Pipelayers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricRough CarpentersPipelayers
Risk Score23.4%21.6%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile15th10th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)4 / 153 / 14
Median Salary$59,310$48,710
Employment698K34K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Production and Processing
Design
Resolving Conflicts and Negotiating with Others
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Scheduling Work and Activities
Training and Teaching Others
Developing and Building Teams
Controlling Machines and Processes
Coaching and Developing Others

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Rough Carpenters

31%

total discount

Pipelayers

28%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Rough Carpenters

4 of 15 at risk
86%Maintain job records and schedule work crew.
84%Study blueprints and diagrams to determine dimensions of structure or form to be constructed.
62%Measure materials or distances, using square, measuring tape, or rule to lay out work.
51%Fabricate parts, using woodworking and metalworking machines.
43%Cut or saw boards, timbers, or plywood to required size, using handsaw, power saw, or woodworking machine.

Pipelayers

3 of 14 at risk
84%Lay out pipe routes, following written instructions or blueprints and coordinating layouts with supervisors.
74%Check slopes for conformance to requirements, using levels or lasers.
74%Locate existing pipes needing repair or replacement, using magnetic or radio indicators.
49%Cover pipes with earth or other materials.
49%Dig trenches to desired or required depths, by hand or using trenching tools.

Wage Comparison

Pipelayers earns -$10,600(-18%) vs Rough Carpenters
Rough CarpentersPipelayers
10th
$38,760$36,840
25th
$47,550$42,320
Median
$59,310$48,710
75th
$75,620$60,980
90th
$98,370$80,710

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Rough Carpenters20282035
Pipelayers20282035
20242030203520402045

Pipelayers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Rough Carpenters.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Rough Carpenters

$45,414

from $59,310

Pipelayers

$38,189

from $48,710

After adjusting for AI risk, Rough Carpenters offers $7,225 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Rough

0

Unique to Pipelayers

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Rough CarpentersPipelayers