Side-by-Side Comparison
Pipelayers leads 4–1| Metric | Rough Carpenters | Pipelayers |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Score | 23.4% | 21.6% |
| Risk Tier | Low Risk | Low Risk |
| Risk Percentile | 15th | 10th |
| Tasks at Risk (>50%) | 4 / 15 | 3 / 14 |
| Median Salary | $59,310 | $48,710 |
| Employment | 698K | 34K |
Skill Comparison
|
Sorted by largest difference
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Production and Processing
Design
Resolving Conflicts and Negotiating with Others
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Scheduling Work and Activities
Training and Teaching Others
Developing and Building Teams
Controlling Machines and Processes
Coaching and Developing Others
Protective Factors
Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement
Rough Carpenters
31%
total discount
Pipelayers
28%
total discount
Task Risk Comparison
Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable
Rough Carpenters
4 of 15 at risk86%Maintain job records and schedule work crew.
84%Study blueprints and diagrams to determine dimensions of structure or form to be constructed.
62%Measure materials or distances, using square, measuring tape, or rule to lay out work.
51%Fabricate parts, using woodworking and metalworking machines.
43%Cut or saw boards, timbers, or plywood to required size, using handsaw, power saw, or woodworking machine.
Pipelayers
3 of 14 at risk84%Lay out pipe routes, following written instructions or blueprints and coordinating layouts with supervisors.
74%Check slopes for conformance to requirements, using levels or lasers.
74%Locate existing pipes needing repair or replacement, using magnetic or radio indicators.
49%Cover pipes with earth or other materials.
49%Dig trenches to desired or required depths, by hand or using trenching tools.
Wage Comparison
Pipelayers earns -$10,600(-18%) vs Rough Carpenters
Rough CarpentersPipelayers
10th
$38,760$36,840
25th
$47,550$42,320
Median
$59,310$48,710
75th
$75,620$60,980
90th
$98,370$80,710
Premium Head-to-Head Analysis
Displacement Timeline Comparison
Rough Carpenters2028–2035
Pipelayers2028–2035
20242030203520402045
Pipelayers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Rough Carpenters.
Risk-Adjusted Salary
Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)
Rough Carpenters
$45,414
from $59,310
Pipelayers
$38,189
from $48,710
After adjusting for AI risk, Rough Carpenters offers $7,225 more in risk-adjusted pay.
Transition Feasibility
1%
Skill Overlap
Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition
0
Unique to Rough
0
Unique to Pipelayers
Combined Protection Strategy
Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors
Creativity
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Rough CarpentersPipelayers