Takeover Tracker
23%low risk
Rough Carpenters
vs

67 shared · 12 different

core competencies

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricRough CarpentersSheet Metal Workers
Risk Score23.4%24.2%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile15th17th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)4 / 157 / 15
Median Salary$59,310$60,850
Employment698K117K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Building and Construction
Identifying Objects, Actions, and Events
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Judging the Qualities of Things, Services, or People
Handling and Moving Objects
Coaching and Developing Others
Design
Developing and Building Teams
Education and Training
Scheduling Work and Activities
Resolving Conflicts and Negotiating with Others
Oral Comprehension

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Rough Carpenters

31%

total discount

Sheet Metal Workers

27%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Rough Carpenters

4 of 15 at risk
86%Maintain job records and schedule work crew.
84%Study blueprints and diagrams to determine dimensions of structure or form to be constructed.
62%Measure materials or distances, using square, measuring tape, or rule to lay out work.
51%Fabricate parts, using woodworking and metalworking machines.
43%Cut or saw boards, timbers, or plywood to required size, using handsaw, power saw, or woodworking machine.

Sheet Metal Workers

7 of 15 at risk
86%Develop or lay out patterns, using computerized metalworking equipment.
86%Verify that heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed, installed, and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards, such as those of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED).
85%Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications.
84%Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products.
63%Inspect individual parts, assemblies, or installations, using measuring instruments, such as calipers, scales, or micrometers.

Wage Comparison

Sheet Metal Workers earns +$1,540(+3%) vs Rough Carpenters
Rough CarpentersSheet Metal Workers
10th
$38,760$38,030
25th
$47,550$47,290
Median
$59,310$60,850
75th
$75,620$79,620
90th
$98,370$102,680

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Rough Carpenters20282035
Sheet Metal Workers20282035
20242030203520402045

Rough Carpenters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Sheet Metal Workers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Rough Carpenters

$45,414

from $59,310

Sheet Metal Workers

$46,112

from $60,850

After adjusting for AI risk, Sheet Metal Workers offers $698 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Rough

0

Unique to Sheet

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Regulatory Barriers
Fine Manipulation
Creativity
Rough CarpentersSheet Metal Workers