Side-by-Side Comparison
Sheet Metal Workers leads 5–0| Metric | Sheet Metal Workers | Machinists |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Score | 24.2% | 36.8% |
| Risk Tier | Low Risk | Medium Risk |
| Risk Percentile | 17th | 71th |
| Tasks at Risk (>50%) | 7 / 15 | 9 / 15 |
| Median Salary | $60,850 | $56,150 |
| Employment | 117K | 299K |
Skill Comparison
|
Sorted by largest difference
Performing General Physical Activities
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Administration and Management
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Controlling Machines and Processes
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
MathematicsAI-Vulnerable
Customer and Personal Service
Protective Factors
Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement
Sheet Metal Workers
27%
total discount
Machinists
26%
total discount
Task Risk Comparison
Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable
Sheet Metal Workers
7 of 15 at risk86%Develop or lay out patterns, using computerized metalworking equipment.
86%Verify that heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed, installed, and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards, such as those of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED).
85%Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications.
84%Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products.
63%Inspect individual parts, assemblies, or installations, using measuring instruments, such as calipers, scales, or micrometers.
Machinists
9 of 15 at risk86%Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools.
84%Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products.
70%Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments such as micrometers or vernier calipers.
63%Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process.
57%Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers.
Wage Comparison
Machinists earns -$4,700(-8%) vs Sheet Metal Workers
Sheet Metal WorkersMachinists
10th
$38,030$38,100
25th
$47,290$46,250
Median
$60,850$56,150
75th
$79,620$64,910
90th
$102,680$78,760
Premium Head-to-Head Analysis
Displacement Timeline Comparison
Sheet Metal Workers2028–2035
Machinists2028–2035
20242030203520402045
Sheet Metal Workers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Machinists.
Risk-Adjusted Salary
Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)
Sheet Metal Workers
$46,112
from $60,850
Machinists
$35,492
from $56,150
After adjusting for AI risk, Sheet Metal Workers offers $10,620 more in risk-adjusted pay.
Transition Feasibility
1%
Skill Overlap
Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition
0
Unique to Sheet
0
Unique to Machinists
Combined Protection Strategy
Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors
Creativity
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
Sheet Metal WorkersMachinists