Takeover Tracker
28%medium risk
Ship and Boat Captains
vs

55 shared · 45 different

core competencies

40%medium risk
Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricShip and Boat CaptainsRailroad Conductors and Yardmasters
Risk Score27.6%40.4%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile28th82th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)8 / 158 / 15
Median Salary$85,540$74,080
Employment35K43K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Controlling Machines and Processes
Spatial Orientation
Making Decisions and Solving Problems
Geography
Judging the Qualities of Things, Services, or People
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Scheduling Work and Activities
Thinking Creatively
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Assisting and Caring for Others
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Ship and Boat Captains

35%

total discount

Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters

28%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Ship and Boat Captains

8 of 15 at risk
88%Measure depths of water, using depth-measuring equipment.
86%Read gauges to verify sufficient levels of hydraulic fluid, air pressure, or oxygen.
86%Maintain records of daily activities, personnel reports, ship positions and movements, ports of call, weather and sea conditions, pollution control efforts, or cargo or passenger status.
78%Signal passing vessels, using whistles, flashing lights, flags, or radios.
78%Monitor the loading or discharging of cargo or passengers.

Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters

8 of 15 at risk
88%Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes.
88%Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.
86%Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.
86%Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.
86%Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.

Wage Comparison

Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters earns -$11,460(-13%) vs Ship and Boat Captains
Ship and Boat CaptainsRailroad Conductors and Yardmasters
10th
$46,260$53,490
25th
$60,800$63,480
Median
$85,540$74,080
75th
$124,530$82,060
90th
$164,230$103,350

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Ship and Boat Captains2028–2035
Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Ship and Boat Captains has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Ship and Boat Captains

$61,888

from $85,540

Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters

$44,144

from $74,080

After adjusting for AI risk, Ship and Boat Captains offers $17,744 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Ship

0

Unique to Railroad

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Ship and Boat CaptainsRailroad Conductors and Yardmasters
Find transitions from Ship and Boat CaptainsFind transitions from Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters