Takeover Tracker
34%medium risk
Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers
vs

74 shared · 28 different

core competencies

34%medium risk
Commercial Pilots

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricAirline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight EngineersCommercial Pilots
Risk Score34.3%34.2%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile63th63th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)6 / 1510 / 15
Median Salary$226,600$122,670
Employment99K52K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Psychology
Processing Information
Analyzing Data or Information
Response Orientation
Customer and Personal Service
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings
Rate Control
Controlling Machines and Processes
Handling and Moving Objects
Spatial Orientation
Number Facility
Night Vision

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers

34%

total discount

Commercial Pilots

32%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers

6 of 15 at risk
88%Steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers.
86%Check passenger and cargo distributions and fuel amounts to ensure that weight and balance specifications are met.
86%Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
84%Monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and to regulate engine speed.
82%Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

Commercial Pilots

10 of 15 at risk
89%Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
87%File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
87%Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
85%Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
77%Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

Wage Comparison

Commercial Pilots earns -$103,930(-46%) vs Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers
Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight EngineersCommercial Pilots
10th
$98,560$59,330
25th
$154,360$81,660
Median
$226,600$122,670
75th
$239,200$175,050
90th
$239,200$239,200

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers2028–2035
Commercial Pilots2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Commercial Pilots has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers

$148,944

from $226,600

Commercial Pilots

$80,729

from $122,670

After adjusting for AI risk, Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers offers $68,215 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Airline

0

Unique to Commercial

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Decision Complexity
Regulatory Barriers
Social Intelligence
Creativity
Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight EngineersCommercial Pilots
Find transitions from Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight EngineersFind transitions from Commercial Pilots