Takeover Tracker
34%medium risk
Commercial Pilots
vs

36 shared · 56 different

core competencies

24%low risk
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricCommercial PilotsHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Risk Score34.2%23.6%
Risk TierMedium RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile63th16th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)10 / 158 / 15
Median Salary$122,670$57,440
Employment52K2.1M

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Transportation
Operation and Control
Geography
Problem Sensitivity
Active LearningAI-Augmented
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Flexibility of Closure
Deductive Reasoning
Oral Comprehension
Computers and Electronics
Inductive Reasoning
Critical ThinkingAI-Augmented

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Commercial Pilots

32%

total discount

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

26%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Commercial Pilots

10 of 15 at risk
89%Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
87%File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
87%Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
85%Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
77%Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

8 of 15 at risk
88%Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.
88%Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required.
88%Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.
88%Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.
86%Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.

Wage Comparison

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers earns -$65,230(-53%) vs Commercial Pilots
Commercial PilotsHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
10th
$59,330$38,640
25th
$81,660$47,230
Median
$122,670$57,440
75th
$175,050$65,520
90th
$239,200$78,800

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Commercial Pilots2028–2035
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Commercial Pilots.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Commercial Pilots

$80,729

from $122,670

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

$43,884

from $57,440

After adjusting for AI risk, Commercial Pilots offers $36,845 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Commercial

0

Unique to Heavy

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Decision Complexity
Social Intelligence
Creativity
Fine Manipulation
Commercial PilotsHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Find transitions from Commercial PilotsFind transitions from Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers