Takeover Tracker
21%low risk
Forest Firefighters
vs

58 shared · 46 different

core competencies

22%low risk
Highway Maintenance Workers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricForest FirefightersHighway Maintenance Workers
Risk Score21.0%22.3%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile9th12th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)2 / 153 / 15
Median Salary$59,530$49,070
Employment332K152K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Handling and Moving Objects
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Building and Construction
Coaching and Developing Others
Customer and Personal Service
Selling or Influencing Others
Performing General Physical Activities
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Chemistry
Education and Training
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings
Service OrientationAI-Resistant

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Forest Firefighters

35%

total discount

Highway Maintenance Workers

27%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Forest Firefighters

2 of 15 at risk
76%Maintain knowledge of current firefighting practices by participating in drills and by attending seminars, conventions, and conferences.
74%Maintain contact with fire dispatchers at all times to notify them of the need for additional firefighters and supplies, or to detail any difficulties encountered.
49%Operate pumps connected to high-pressure hoses.
49%Maintain fire equipment and firehouse living quarters.
49%Transport personnel and cargo to and from fire areas.

Highway Maintenance Workers

3 of 15 at risk
61%Measure and mark locations for installation of markers, using tape, string, or chalk.
61%Paint traffic control lines and place pavement traffic messages, by hand or using machines.
51%Drive trucks to transport crews and equipment to work sites.
49%Flag motorists to warn them of obstacles or repair work ahead.
47%Apply poisons along roadsides and in animal burrows to eliminate unwanted roadside vegetation and rodents.

Wage Comparison

Highway Maintenance Workers earns -$10,460(-18%) vs Forest Firefighters
Forest FirefightersHighway Maintenance Workers
10th
$34,490$35,030
25th
$44,180$41,540
Median
$59,530$49,070
75th
$77,410$59,600
90th
$101,330$69,210

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Forest Firefighters2028–2035
Highway Maintenance Workers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Forest Firefighters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Highway Maintenance Workers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Forest Firefighters

$47,029

from $59,530

Highway Maintenance Workers

$38,118

from $49,070

After adjusting for AI risk, Forest Firefighters offers $8,911 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Forest

0

Unique to Highway

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Fine Manipulation
Regulatory Barriers
Decision Complexity
Social Intelligence
Forest FirefightersHighway Maintenance Workers
Find transitions from Forest FirefightersFind transitions from Highway Maintenance Workers