Takeover Tracker
24%low risk
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
vs

50 shared · 21 different

core competencies

36%medium risk
Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversLight Truck or Delivery Services Drivers
Risk Score23.6%36.5%
Risk TierLow RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile16th70th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)8 / 158 / 14
Median Salary$57,440$44,140
Employment2.1M994K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Material
Scheduling Work and Activities
Controlling Machines and Processes
Making Decisions and Solving Problems
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment
Developing Objectives and Strategies
Rate Control
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Control Precision
Reaction Time
Documenting/Recording Information
Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

26%

total discount

Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

25%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

8 of 15 at risk
88%Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.
88%Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required.
88%Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.
88%Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.
86%Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.

Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

8 of 14 at risk
88%Read maps and follow written or verbal geographic directions.
88%Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations.
88%Report any mechanical problems encountered with vehicles.
88%Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations to bases or other vehicles, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.
84%Verify the contents of inventory loads against shipping papers.

Wage Comparison

Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers earns -$13,300(-23%) vs Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversLight Truck or Delivery Services Drivers
10th
$38,640$29,580
25th
$47,230$36,670
Median
$57,440$44,140
75th
$65,520$52,460
90th
$78,800$79,630

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2028–2035
Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

$43,884

from $57,440

Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

$28,033

from $44,140

After adjusting for AI risk, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers offers $15,851 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Heavy

0

Unique to Light

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Regulatory Barriers
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversLight Truck or Delivery Services Drivers
Find transitions from Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversFind transitions from Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers