Takeover Tracker
24%low risk
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
vs

47 shared · 25 different

core competencies

27%medium risk
Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversRefuse and Recyclable Material Collectors
Risk Score23.6%27.0%
Risk TierLow RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile16th25th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)8 / 154 / 15
Median Salary$57,440$48,350
Employment2.1M139K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Scheduling Work and Activities
Getting Information
Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Documenting/Recording Information
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization
Customer and Personal Service
Rate Control
Analyzing Data or Information
Far Vision
Response Orientation
Making Decisions and Solving Problems

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

26%

total discount

Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors

27%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

8 of 15 at risk
88%Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.
88%Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required.
88%Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.
88%Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.
86%Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.

Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors

4 of 15 at risk
86%Fill out defective equipment reports.
73%Organize schedules for refuse collection.
59%Operate equipment that compresses collected refuse.
55%Check road or weather conditions to determine how routes will be affected.
49%Operate automated or semi-automated hoisting devices that raise refuse bins and dump contents into openings in truck bodies.

Wage Comparison

Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors earns -$9,090(-16%) vs Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversRefuse and Recyclable Material Collectors
10th
$38,640$31,810
25th
$47,230$38,330
Median
$57,440$48,350
75th
$65,520$61,010
90th
$78,800$75,200

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2028–2035
Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

$43,884

from $57,440

Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors

$35,310

from $48,350

After adjusting for AI risk, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers offers $8,574 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Heavy

0

Unique to Refuse

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Decision Complexity
Social Intelligence
Fine Manipulation
Regulatory Barriers
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversRefuse and Recyclable Material Collectors
Find transitions from Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversFind transitions from Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors