Takeover Tracker
24%low risk
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
vs

63 shared · 15 different

core competencies

52%high risk
Subway and Streetcar Operators

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversSubway and Streetcar Operators
Risk Score23.6%52.4%
Risk TierLow RiskHigh Risk
Risk Percentile16th98th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)8 / 1510 / 12
Median Salary$57,440$84,830
Employment2.1M9K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Documenting/Recording Information
Handling and Moving Objects
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Estimating the Quantifiable Characteristics of Products, Events, or Information
Static Strength
Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment
Auditory Attention
Oral Expression
Flexibility of Closure
Controlling Machines and Processes
Public Safety and Security

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

26%

total discount

Subway and Streetcar Operators

28%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

8 of 15 at risk
88%Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.
88%Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required.
88%Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.
88%Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.
86%Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.

Subway and Streetcar Operators

10 of 12 at risk
89%Make announcements to passengers, such as notifications of upcoming stops or schedule delays.
89%Collect fares from passengers, and issue change and transfers.
89%Record transactions and coin receptor readings to verify the amount of money collected.
87%Regulate vehicle speed and the time spent at each stop to maintain schedules.
87%Report delays, mechanical problems, and emergencies to supervisors or dispatchers, using radios.

Wage Comparison

Subway and Streetcar Operators earns +$27,390(+48%) vs Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversSubway and Streetcar Operators
10th
$38,640$52,260
25th
$47,230$59,500
Median
$57,440$84,830
75th
$65,520$87,940
90th
$78,800$87,940

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2028–2035
Subway and Streetcar Operators2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Subway and Streetcar Operators.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

$43,884

from $57,440

Subway and Streetcar Operators

$40,421

from $84,830

After adjusting for AI risk, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers offers $3,463 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Heavy

0

Unique to Subway

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Creativity
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversSubway and Streetcar Operators
Find transitions from Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck DriversFind transitions from Subway and Streetcar Operators