Takeover Tracker
30%medium risk
Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers
vs

44 shared · 14 different

core competencies

22%low risk
Childcare Workers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricLifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service WorkersChildcare Workers
Risk Score30.4%21.7%
Risk TierMedium RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile41th11th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)5 / 152 / 15
Median Salary$33,720$32,050
Employment144K520K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Customer and Personal Service
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Performing General Physical Activities
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Assisting and Caring for Others
Developing Objectives and Strategies
Medicine and Dentistry
Problem Sensitivity
Public Safety and Security
Fluency of Ideas
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings
Resolving Conflicts and Negotiating with Others

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers

27%

total discount

Childcare Workers

30%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers

5 of 15 at risk
86%Complete and maintain records of weather and beach conditions, emergency medical treatments performed, and other relevant incident information.
84%Observe activities in assigned areas, using binoculars, to detect hazards, disturbances, or safety infractions.
78%Contact emergency medical personnel in case of serious injury.
55%Maintain quality of pool water by testing chemical levels.
51%Inspect recreational facilities for cleanliness.

Childcare Workers

2 of 15 at risk
85%Perform general administrative tasks, such as taking attendance, editing internal paperwork, and making phone calls.
70%Keep records on individual children, including daily observations and information about activities, meals served, and medications administered.
45%Organize and store toys and materials to ensure order in activity areas.
45%Sterilize bottles and prepare formulas.
41%Sanitize toys and play equipment.

Wage Comparison

Childcare Workers earns -$1,670(-5%) vs Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers
Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service WorkersChildcare Workers
10th
$24,860$22,900
25th
$28,840$28,000
Median
$33,720$32,050
75th
$37,750$36,960
90th
$44,600$44,560

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers2028–2035
Childcare Workers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Childcare Workers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers

$23,462

from $33,720

Childcare Workers

$25,095

from $32,050

After adjusting for AI risk, Childcare Workers offers $1,633 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Lifeguards,

0

Unique to Childcare

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Regulatory Barriers
Social Intelligence
Fine Manipulation
Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service WorkersChildcare Workers
Find transitions from Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service WorkersFind transitions from Childcare Workers