Takeover Tracker
37%medium risk
Machinists
vs

47 shared · 7 different

core competencies

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricMachinistsPatternmakers, Wood
Risk Score36.8%24.9%
Risk TierMedium RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile71th19th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)9 / 154 / 15
Median Salary$56,150$52,520
Employment299K180

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

English Language
Operations Analysis
Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates
Design
Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Machinists

26%

total discount

Patternmakers, Wood

25%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Machinists

9 of 15 at risk
86%Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools.
84%Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products.
70%Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments such as micrometers or vernier calipers.
63%Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process.
57%Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers.

Patternmakers, Wood

4 of 15 at risk
84%Estimate costs for patternmaking jobs.
78%Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups.
65%Compute dimensions, areas, volumes, and weights.
59%Verify dimensions of completed patterns, using templates, straightedges, calipers, or protractors.
49%Finish completed products or models with shellac, lacquer, wax, or paint.

Wage Comparison

Patternmakers, Wood earns -$3,630(-6%) vs Machinists
MachinistsPatternmakers, Wood
10th
$38,100$40,730
25th
$46,250$45,450
Median
$56,150$52,520
75th
$64,910$77,410
90th
$78,760$83,330

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Machinists20282035
Patternmakers, Wood20282035
20242030203520402045

Patternmakers, Wood has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Machinists.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Machinists

$35,492

from $56,150

Patternmakers, Wood

$39,432

from $52,520

After adjusting for AI risk, Patternmakers, Wood offers $3,940 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Machinists

0

Unique to Patternmakers,

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Social Intelligence
Fine Manipulation
Decision Complexity
Creativity
MachinistsPatternmakers, Wood