Takeover Tracker
18%low risk
Municipal Firefighters
vs

86 shared · 34 different

core competencies

22%low risk
Commercial Divers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricMunicipal FirefightersCommercial Divers
Risk Score17.7%22.2%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile3th12th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)0 / 157 / 15
Median Salary$59,530$61,130
Employment332K3K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Customer and Personal Service
Public Safety and Security
Assisting and Caring for Others
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Education and Training
Psychology
Telecommunications
Law and Government
Administration and Management
Medicine and Dentistry
English Language
Static Strength

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Municipal Firefighters

37%

total discount

Commercial Divers

34%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Municipal Firefighters

0 of 15 at risk
39%Assess fires and situations and report conditions to superiors to receive instructions, using two-way radios.
39%Inspect fire sites after flames have been extinguished to ensure that there is no further danger.
33%Dress with equipment such as fire-resistant clothing and breathing apparatus.
31%Move toward the source of a fire, using knowledge of types of fires, construction design, building materials, and physical layout of properties.
17%Drive and operate fire fighting vehicles and equipment.

Commercial Divers

7 of 15 at risk
84%Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.
61%Take test samples or photographs to assess the condition of vessels or structures.
57%Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.
55%Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life.
55%Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures.

Wage Comparison

Commercial Divers earns +$1,600(+3%) vs Municipal Firefighters
Municipal FirefightersCommercial Divers
10th
$34,490$39,130
25th
$44,180$49,370
Median
$59,530$61,130
75th
$77,410$93,840
90th
$101,330$152,580

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Municipal Firefighters2028–2035
Commercial Divers2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Municipal Firefighters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Commercial Divers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Municipal Firefighters

$48,993

from $59,530

Commercial Divers

$47,547

from $61,130

After adjusting for AI risk, Municipal Firefighters offers $1,446 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Municipal

0

Unique to Commercial

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Regulatory Barriers
Social Intelligence
Fine Manipulation
Decision Complexity
Municipal FirefightersCommercial Divers
Find transitions from Municipal FirefightersFind transitions from Commercial Divers