Takeover Tracker
18%low risk
Municipal Firefighters
vs

73 shared · 41 different

core competencies

23%low risk
Rough Carpenters

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricMunicipal FirefightersRough Carpenters
Risk Score17.7%23.4%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile3th15th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)0 / 154 / 15
Median Salary$59,530$59,310
Employment332K698K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Assisting and Caring for Others
Customer and Personal Service
Public Safety and Security
Documenting/Recording Information
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Telecommunications
Design
Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge
Law and Government
Psychology
Chemistry
Education and Training

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Municipal Firefighters

37%

total discount

Rough Carpenters

31%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Municipal Firefighters

0 of 15 at risk
39%Assess fires and situations and report conditions to superiors to receive instructions, using two-way radios.
39%Inspect fire sites after flames have been extinguished to ensure that there is no further danger.
33%Dress with equipment such as fire-resistant clothing and breathing apparatus.
31%Move toward the source of a fire, using knowledge of types of fires, construction design, building materials, and physical layout of properties.
17%Drive and operate fire fighting vehicles and equipment.

Rough Carpenters

4 of 15 at risk
86%Maintain job records and schedule work crew.
84%Study blueprints and diagrams to determine dimensions of structure or form to be constructed.
62%Measure materials or distances, using square, measuring tape, or rule to lay out work.
51%Fabricate parts, using woodworking and metalworking machines.
43%Cut or saw boards, timbers, or plywood to required size, using handsaw, power saw, or woodworking machine.

Wage Comparison

Rough Carpenters earns -$220(0%) vs Municipal Firefighters
Municipal FirefightersRough Carpenters
10th
$34,490$38,760
25th
$44,180$47,550
Median
$59,530$59,310
75th
$77,410$75,620
90th
$101,330$98,370

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Municipal Firefighters2028–2035
Rough Carpenters2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Municipal Firefighters has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Rough Carpenters.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Municipal Firefighters

$48,993

from $59,530

Rough Carpenters

$45,414

from $59,310

After adjusting for AI risk, Municipal Firefighters offers $3,580 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Municipal

0

Unique to Rough

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Regulatory Barriers
Social Intelligence
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Municipal FirefightersRough Carpenters
Find transitions from Municipal FirefightersFind transitions from Rough Carpenters