Takeover Tracker
22%low risk
Pipelayers
vs

50 shared · 13 different

core competencies

18%low risk
Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricPipelayersPaving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators
Risk Score21.6%18.1%
Risk TierLow RiskLow Risk
Risk Percentile10th4th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)3 / 140 / 15
Median Salary$48,710$51,650
Employment34K46K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Handling and Moving Objects
Building and Construction
Transportation
MathematicsAI-Vulnerable
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships
Mechanical
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Estimating the Quantifiable Characteristics of Products, Events, or Information
Training and Teaching Others
Production and Processing
Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards
Multilimb Coordination

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Pipelayers

28%

total discount

Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators

25%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Pipelayers

3 of 14 at risk
84%Lay out pipe routes, following written instructions or blueprints and coordinating layouts with supervisors.
74%Check slopes for conformance to requirements, using levels or lasers.
74%Locate existing pipes needing repair or replacement, using magnetic or radio indicators.
49%Cover pipes with earth or other materials.
49%Dig trenches to desired or required depths, by hand or using trenching tools.

Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators

0 of 15 at risk
45%Light burners or start heating units of machines, and regulate screed temperatures and asphalt flow rates.
41%Start machine, engage clutch, and push and move levers to guide machine along forms or guidelines and to control the operation of machine attachments.
39%Observe distribution of paving material to adjust machine settings or material flow, and indicate low spots for workers to add material.
39%Fill tanks, hoppers, or machines with paving materials.
37%Shovel blacktop.

Wage Comparison

Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators earns +$2,940(+6%) vs Pipelayers
PipelayersPaving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators
10th
$36,840$38,030
25th
$42,320$44,740
Median
$48,710$51,650
75th
$60,980$66,060
90th
$80,710$90,110

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Pipelayers2028–2035
Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Pipelayers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Pipelayers

$38,189

from $48,710

Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators

$42,301

from $51,650

After adjusting for AI risk, Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators offers $4,113 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Pipelayers

0

Unique to Paving,

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Regulatory Barriers
Creativity
PipelayersPaving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators
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