Takeover Tracker
vs

30 shared · 7 different

core competencies

33%medium risk
Nursery Workers

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricPostal Service Mail CarriersNursery Workers
Risk Score36.6%33.4%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile71th59th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)12 / 158 / 15
Median Salary$57,490$35,690
Employment336K262K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Customer and Personal Service
Static Strength
Performing General Physical Activities
Public Safety and Security
Dynamic Strength
Handling and Moving Objects
Trunk Strength

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Postal Service Mail Carriers

22%

total discount

Nursery Workers

22%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Postal Service Mail Carriers

12 of 15 at risk
88%Hold mail for customers who are away from delivery locations.
88%Enter change of address orders into computers that process forwarding address stickers.
88%Maintain accurate records of deliveries.
86%Meet schedules for the collection and return of mail.
86%Register, certify, and insure parcels and letters.

Nursery Workers

8 of 15 at risk
86%Regulate greenhouse conditions, and indoor and outdoor irrigation systems.
86%Maintain inventory, ordering materials as required.
84%Record information about plants and plant growth.
61%Fill growing tanks with water.
57%Cut, roll, and stack sod.

Wage Comparison

Nursery Workers earns -$21,800(-38%) vs Postal Service Mail Carriers
Postal Service Mail CarriersNursery Workers
10th
$42,390$32,260
25th
$46,030$34,280
Median
$57,490$35,690
75th
$75,300$38,950
90th
$76,880$46,370

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Postal Service Mail Carriers20282035
Nursery Workers20282035
20242030203520402045

Nursery Workers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Postal Service Mail Carriers.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Postal Service Mail Carriers

$36,437

from $57,490

Nursery Workers

$23,766

from $35,690

After adjusting for AI risk, Postal Service Mail Carriers offers $12,671 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Postal

0

Unique to Nursery

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Regulatory Barriers
Creativity
Decision Complexity
Fine Manipulation
Postal Service Mail CarriersNursery Workers