Takeover Tracker
38%medium risk
Security Guards
vs

45 shared · 15 different

core competencies

40%medium risk
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricSecurity GuardsUmpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
Risk Score38.3%39.7%
Risk TierMedium RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile76th80th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)6 / 1410 / 15
Median Salary$38,370$38,820
Employment1.2M15K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Documenting/Recording Information
Monitor Processes, Materials, or Surroundings
Public Safety and Security
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public
Assisting and Caring for Others
Performing General Physical Activities
Education and Training
Inspecting Equipment, Structures, or Material
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Speed of Closure
Provide Consultation and Advice to Others
Coaching and Developing Others

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Security Guards

26%

total discount

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

28%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Security Guards

6 of 14 at risk
86%Monitor and authorize entrance and departure of employees, visitors, and other persons to guard against theft and maintain security of premises.
86%Write reports of daily activities and irregularities, such as equipment or property damage, theft, presence of unauthorized persons, or unusual occurrences.
86%Monitor and adjust controls that regulate building systems, such as air conditioning, furnace, or boiler.
85%Call police or fire departments in cases of emergency, such as fire or presence of unauthorized persons.
61%Answer telephone calls to take messages, answer questions, and provide information during non-business hours or when switchboard is closed.

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

10 of 15 at risk
88%Keep track of event times, including race times and elapsed time during game segments, starting or stopping play when necessary.
88%Verify scoring calculations before competition winners are announced.
88%Compile scores and other athletic records.
86%Report to regulating organizations regarding sporting activities, complaints made, and actions taken or needed such as fines or other disciplinary actions.
86%Verify credentials of participants in sporting events, and make other qualifying determinations such as starting order or handicap number.

Wage Comparison

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials earns +$450(+1%) vs Security Guards
Security GuardsUmpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
10th
$29,800$25,070
25th
$35,100$30,920
Median
$38,370$38,820
75th
$46,660$53,560
90th
$59,580$93,180

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Security Guards2028–2035
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Security Guards has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Security Guards

$23,693

from $38,370

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

$23,401

from $38,820

After adjusting for AI risk, Security Guards offers $293 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Security

0

Unique to Umpires,

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Regulatory Barriers
Decision Complexity
Creativity
Social Intelligence
Security GuardsUmpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
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