Takeover Tracker
25%low risk
Choreographers
vs

36 shared · 42 different

core competencies

40%medium risk
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

Side-by-Side Comparison

MetricChoreographersUmpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
Risk Score24.8%39.7%
Risk TierLow RiskMedium Risk
Risk Percentile19th80th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)5 / 1510 / 15
Median Salary$55,600$38,820
Employment3K15K

Skill Comparison

|

Sorted by largest difference

Thinking Creatively
Gross Body Coordination
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work
Performing General Physical Activities
Originality
Coordinating the Work and Activities of Others
Developing Objectives and Strategies
Fluency of Ideas
Multilimb Coordination
InstructingAI-Resistant
Extent Flexibility

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Choreographers

36%

total discount

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

28%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Choreographers

5 of 15 at risk
53%Design sets, lighting, costumes, and other artistic elements of productions, in collaboration with cast members.
52%Develop ideas for creating dances, keeping notes and sketches to record influences.
51%Choose the music, sound effects, or spoken narrative to accompany a dance.
51%Seek influences from other art forms such as theatre, the visual arts, and architecture.
51%Read and study story lines and musical scores to determine how to translate ideas and moods into dance movements.

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

10 of 15 at risk
88%Keep track of event times, including race times and elapsed time during game segments, starting or stopping play when necessary.
88%Verify scoring calculations before competition winners are announced.
88%Compile scores and other athletic records.
86%Report to regulating organizations regarding sporting activities, complaints made, and actions taken or needed such as fines or other disciplinary actions.
86%Verify credentials of participants in sporting events, and make other qualifying determinations such as starting order or handicap number.

Wage Comparison

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials earns -$16,780(-30%) vs Choreographers
ChoreographersUmpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
10th
$33,080$25,070
25th
$39,600$30,920
Median
$55,600$38,820
75th
$71,190$53,560
90th
$94,090$93,180

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Choreographers2028–2035
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials2028–2035
20242030203520402045

Choreographers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Choreographers

$41,800

from $55,600

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

$23,401

from $38,820

After adjusting for AI risk, Choreographers offers $18,399 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

1%

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

0

Unique to Choreographers

0

Unique to Umpires,

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity
Fine Manipulation
Social Intelligence
Regulatory Barriers
ChoreographersUmpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
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