Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials vs Childcare Workers AI Risk

Job 1

Job 2

Job 1

Job 2

medium risk

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

44 shared · 25 different

core competencies

low risk

Childcare Workers

Side-by-Side Comparison

Childcare Workers leads 4–1

Metric	Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials	Childcare Workers
Risk Score	39.7%	21.7%
Risk Tier	Medium Risk	Low Risk
Risk Percentile	80th	11th
Tasks at Risk (>50%)	10 / 15	2 / 15
Median Salary	$38,820	$32,050
Employment	15K	520K

Skill Comparison

Sorted by largest difference

Assisting and Caring for Others

Coaching and Developing Others

Making Decisions and Solving Problems

Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards

Performing General Physical Activities

Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge

Processing Information

Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates

Thinking Creatively

Training and Teaching Others

Resolving Conflicts and Negotiating with Others

Judging the Qualities of Things, Services, or People

Protective Factors

Higher values indicate stronger protection against AI displacement

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

28%

total discount

Childcare Workers

30%

total discount

Task Risk Comparison

Tasks sorted by AI automation risk — higher means more automatable

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

10 of 15 at risk

88%Keep track of event times, including race times and elapsed time during game segments, starting or stopping play when necessary.

88%Verify scoring calculations before competition winners are announced.

88%Compile scores and other athletic records.

86%Report to regulating organizations regarding sporting activities, complaints made, and actions taken or needed such as fines or other disciplinary actions.

86%Verify credentials of participants in sporting events, and make other qualifying determinations such as starting order or handicap number.

Childcare Workers

2 of 15 at risk

85%Perform general administrative tasks, such as taking attendance, editing internal paperwork, and making phone calls.

70%Keep records on individual children, including daily observations and information about activities, meals served, and medications administered.

45%Organize and store toys and materials to ensure order in activity areas.

45%Sterilize bottles and prepare formulas.

41%Sanitize toys and play equipment.

Wage Comparison

Childcare Workers earns -$6,770(-17%) vs Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports OfficialsChildcare Workers

10th

$25,070$22,900

25th

$30,920$28,000

Median

$38,820$32,050

75th

$53,560$36,960

90th

$93,180$44,560

Premium Head-to-Head Analysis

Displacement Timeline Comparison

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials2028–2035

Childcare Workers2028–2035

20242030203520402045

Childcare Workers has a longer runway before significant displacement, projected 0 years later than Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials.

Risk-Adjusted Salary

Salary weighted by displacement risk: salary × (1 − risk%)

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials

$23,401

from $38,820

Childcare Workers

$25,095

from $32,050

After adjusting for AI risk, Childcare Workers offers $1,694 more in risk-adjusted pay.

Transition Feasibility

Skill Overlap

Low overlap — significant retraining needed for transition

Unique to Umpires,

Unique to Childcare

Combined Protection Strategy

Regardless of which path you choose, focus on these protective factors

Creativity

Decision Complexity

Fine Manipulation

Social Intelligence

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports OfficialsChildcare Workers

Find transitions from Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials Find transitions from Childcare Workers